Research · The Desk

Notes from the desk.

What we see across the inbox — reconciliations, kill-flag taxonomies, and the patterns founders share without meaning to. Published when a pattern is robust enough to be useful at the IC table — not before.

Dossiers analyzed1,142across the private beta — the corpus these notes are drawn from
Patterns shipped9 of 38candidate patterns reviewed; remainder still maturing
Median read8 minlong enough to be useful, short enough to read before a call
Cadence~2 / mowhen a pattern is robust — not when the calendar says so
Sort:Most recent
04
Numbers9 min read

Reading a founder's burn rate.

Burn isn't one number — it's three. The one in the deck is usually the prettiest. Here's how to triangulate the real one — and what it tells you about runway.

Deck vs. reconstructed burn2.4×median understatement
14 May 2026Read note →
05
Method6 min read

Kill flags: the eleven we see most often.

A taxonomy built from 1,142 dossiers. Eleven flags account for 78% of all material kills — and four are recoverable if the founder addresses them in the first call.

Coverage of all kills78%in 11 flag types
9 May 2026Read note →
07
Risk8 min read

Concentration: when one customer is half the revenue.

A single design-partner customer can mask everything wrong with the GTM motion. Here's how we test for healthy vs. unhealthy concentration — and the three remediation paths IC tolerates.

Dossiers w/ unhealthy concentration34%at Series A
28 Apr 2026Read note →
08
Method9 min read

The cohort table the deck didn't include.

Why founders show triangle charts instead of cohort tables — and the three reconstructions that turn a flattering retention slide into a defensible one.

Decks shipping cohort table12%at seed stage
22 Apr 2026Read note →
09
Numbers7 min read

NDR above 120% is almost never NDR.

The single most-claimed metric in the inbox — and the one most often mis-defined. A short field test for whether the number actually means what the deck implies.

Claimed NDR ≥ 120% that reconciles28%of 184 cases
14 Apr 2026Read note →

These patterns are baked into every dossier.

The research above is portable. The dossiers automate it — specialist AI agents run the rebuilds, flag the patterns, and cite the sources, typically in under an hour per deck.